Welcome to the Summer 2012 Please-Don't-Bomb-Iran Tour, starring the Obama Administration, now on stage in Jerusalem.
Last week, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns came to Israel to top-level consultations. The President's national security adviser, Tom Donilon, also dropped by for a visit. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to arrive in Israel about now. More visits from senior Administration officials are scheduled for later this month. The number of top American officials visiting Jerusalem is outmatched only by the number of American warships already in the Persian Gulf, or heading there now.
In other words, with Iran nuclear talks at an impasse, the Administration seems to believe that Israel may once again be gearing-up to launch a strike at Iran's nuclear facilities, perhaps later this summer.
Last month, the Atlantic's Iran War panel, expertly organized by Dominic Tierney, placed the chances of an American or Israeli attack over the next year at 36 percent
. I hope Dominic is organizing another poll of his expert panel, because, based on all of this activity, it seems as if 36 percent might be a slightly low number.
I'm in the Meir Dagan camp on this one. The former Mossad chief believes that an Israeli attack would actually help Iran achieve nuclear weapons status
. Here is what I wrote about a recent interview with Dagan:
... (W)hat angers him most is what he sees as a total lack of understanding on the part of the men who lead the Israeli government about what may come the day after an Israeli strike. Some senior Israeli officials have argued to me that a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities might actually trigger the eventual downfall of the regime.
(WTFWTFWTF IDIOTS!) Dagan predicts the opposite: "Judging by the war Iran fought against Iraq, even people who supported the Shah, even the Communists, joined hands with (Ayatollah) Khomeini to fight Saddam
," he said, adding, "In case of an attack, political pressure on the regime will disappear. If Israel will attack, there is no doubt in my mind that this will also provide them with the justification to go ahead and move quickly to nuclear weapons.
" He also predicted that the sanctions program engineered principally by President Obama may collapse as a result of an Israeli strike, which would make it easier for Iran to obtain the material necessary for it to cross the nuclear threshold.
that ex Mossad chief knows the deal. Israel done gone from Chess to Checkers in the worst way.
BTW in case we need reminders, here's the immediate, ironclad, and totally positive consequences of a Israel strike on Iran:
1) Iranians that hate their Gov't immediately forget this and get swept up in a orgy of Nationalist pride, especially after somebody fucks up and drops a bomb on a building that's supposed to be a lab but actually contains a pre-school, a daycare, a hospital, and i dunno lets say a big kennel full of adorable puppies. The mullahs would use the opportunity to purge all those Green rebels and dissidents, Night of the Long Knives style. BTW did I mention that they intentionally built most of these targeted labs in Shiite Islam holy cities, in close proximity to sacred shrines? I should probably mention that.
2) U.S gets mad
hate for all this, regardless of whatever they actually did
. Seriously. Let's hypothetically suppose that Obama not only said no, not only refused to help them, but actually ordered the Israeli planes shot down
, then gave a frantic press conference screaming "I TOLD THEM NOT TO DO IT AND THESE DUMB OUTTA POCKET MUHFUCKAS WOULDN'T LISTEN. FUCK ISRAEL, B." .....ppl still wouldn't give a fuck and the U.S would still get blamed. It'd be like me Janklow and one other poster goin "Uhhhh he just screamed fuck Israel on TV, I don't think he wanted this" in the SL thread and ya'll would ignore the hell outta us lol.
3) Oil prices skyrocket to...................Jesus. You don't even wanna know. Niggas will throw away that g-pack and start slang'n gas in the hood, let's put it that way.
4) Iran.......*RUSHES* TO GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS. AND GETS THEM. Whoops, turns out you can't destroy knowledge and the desire to use it with bombs after all. Who'd a thunk it. It was an unknown-unknown!
BTW IRAN WITH NUKES IS STILL A VERY BAD THING BCUZ THE SAUDIS WILL FREAK OUT AND GET THEIR OWN NUKES AND NOW WE GOT 3 CRAZY-ASS COUNTRIES WITH RELIGIOUS BEEF AIMING NUKES AT EACH OTHER, have a nice day