ESPN article: Where have all the gunners gone?

ShencotheMCShencotheMC KINGPosts: 23,196 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited January 2013 in From the Cheap Seats
Y'all peep this article about the reasons there aren't as many 20 ppg scorers in the NBA anymore? Niggas prolly won't read, but aye, whatever. Here you go.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53534/where-have-all-the-gunners-gone

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Brent Barry e-mailed. He was wondering why these days so few NBA players average 20 or more points per game.

There's just nine in the whole league, at the moment, he pointed out. As recently as 2007-2008 there were 27.

Three times as many!

Remember, those are the most exciting players to watch. The human highlight reels, the putting-butts-in-seats guys, the players a million kids on a million blacktops dream of becoming.

And two-thirds of them have essentially gone missing. As if stolen.

Gone with them are a bundle of special memories, including almost all the 50-point nights.

If aliens had lured them to another planet to start a highly rated hoops league there, we'd have a massive story worthy of Hollywood.

But they have disappeared in some other way that's tougher to notice. Slipped out the back door. And ... crickets. Our scorers have gone, our scorers have gone and ... barely a whisper.

What is going on?

Barry had some theories:
Playing-time cutbacks?
Lots of injured stars this season?
Teams playing at a slower pace?

This was serious. I fetched a legal pad and scribbled down those theories, and added some of my own:
Scoring down in general?
Top players shooting less by choice in the name of efficiency? (The highest salaries that used to go just to the highest points-per-game guys now tilt to those with the best scoring efficiency.)
More stars saving early-season energy for the playoffs?
Coaches giving more big minutes to elite defenders, which would both keep more shooters on the bench and make opposing scorers less effective?
Better team defense? The effective kind of rotating/switching defense that was an outlier for the Celtics in 2008 is now commonplace, which could make scorers less effective while also making those would-be big scorers more tired from running around so much?

Scoring

Scoring is down, a little. A typical NBA team so far this season has scored about 98 points per game. That number was 99.9 in 2007-08, and a whopping 109.9 in 1986-87. It's part of the story, but it's not the whole thing.

Replies

  • ShencotheMCShencotheMC KING Posts: 23,196 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Minutes

    Just about a year ago exactly I did some rough-and-ready research and found that teams whose top players play a ton of minutes don't win NBA titles. Not anymore. They used to. But not in recent years.

    The best theory I heard to explain that came from David Thorpe, who laid the blame it on that hustling, switching team defense. Once upon a time, lots of teams preferred an "isolation" offense, which meant one player dribbling alone against one defender, while as many as eight guys caught breathers. On many NBA plays these days, nobody stands around. It's common to see 10 guys flying all over the court. This is not your daddy's NBA. It's great for fans and team play, but it's much tougher for players: A minute of play, the theory goes, is now much more work than it used to be, and one result is that more rest is required.

    I went into this season expecting that more smart teams would limit their top players' minutes, Popovich-style, not because they are weak in the mind nor because they are not in good-enough shape. But because it works.

    Basketball-Reference was built to answer these kinds of questions, and what I found was that while some top teams may be managing minutes, plenty are not. I dug in, using the top 10 players in minutes played as a test. In the first 36 games of the 2007-08 season, the 10 players with the most minutes played logged a combined 14,281 minutes. This season, that list includes Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard, and the total minutes they have played is down to 13,793. So maybe that's having some effect.

    And while there are plenty of heavy-minute players this season, some of those on limited diets of playing time, because of injury or strategy, are players who might have scored more in a different season. Brook Lopez, Tim Duncan, Jamal Crawford, Kevin Martin, Kevin Garnett and Derrick Rose are among those who'd threaten the 20-per-game with a typical alpha-scorer's playing time.

    But it's not some massive historical trend that big names are sitting more. I checked 1985-86, too, back when Dominique Wilkins and Larry Bird were scoring at will, and in that season the top 10 combined to play even fewer minutes than today's big names.

    Joe Johnson is something of a poster child here: He was scoring 21.7 points per game five years ago playing the second-most minutes in the league. This year he's playing less and scoring just 17.1 points per game. In other words, Johnson is one of the players Barry was e-mailing about, one of the players who has been affected by ... whatever is happening.

    Did they rob us of this transcendent scorer by sitting him? Not exactly.

    His minutes are down, but his scoring is down even more -- even with his old minutes, he'd only score 18.5 points per game at this season's scoring rate. That's the trend: There are plenty of gifted scorers playing the kinds of minutes that used to get you 20 points per game. Those players just aren't scoring as much now.

    Something else is up.

    Pace

    Maybe the game has slowed down? It would explain a lot. Simply keeping the ball longer before shooting would explain now the same number of minutes played would result in fewer possessions, fewer shots and, importantly ... fewer points.

    It's so perfect!

    But it's not happening. The average pace has bounced around this season but is just a tad slower than five years ago, at 91.7 compared to 92.4.

    Shot selection

    OK, so teams are playing at the same speed, and the high-minute players are playing about as many minutes as ever.

    Maybe they're just shooting less? Maybe stat geekery has inspired some kind of revolution in thinking, and suddenly all those inefficient gunners are thinking twice about jacking up bad shots?

    Despite the lack of total points, top players do have slightly better field goal percentage (46.7 compared to 45.7 percent) this year compared to five years ago.

    Again using the the players who lead the league in minutes this season as a sample group of the kinds of players who are candidates to average 20 or more points per game, we find ... this theory strikes out too. The truth is, they're shooting more often.

    This year those top players are taking a shot every 2:19 of play, compared to every 2:24 five years ago. (In 1985-1986 they shot every 2:10, which is a lot of shooting.)

    I had been abusing the numbers of Basketball-Reference for some time, but they simply would not give up the answers I was looking for.

    Time for another perspective.
  • ShencotheMCShencotheMC KING Posts: 23,196 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As soon as I explained the issue to Thorpe, he declared "I know exactly what's going on."

    The defense.

    Thorpe explains it best in the video, but the gist is this: In recent years more and more NBA coaches have signed up for the defensive philosophy, popularized by Tom Thibodeau since 2007-08, of "flooding ball-side box."

    This is not the same as double-teaming, but it has some similarities. When the ball is on one side of the court, watch for this: Very often an extra defender sneaks over to join the action, bringing a crowd of defenders closer to the ball. It's something that became legal when the NBA began allowing zone defenses in 2001, but it took until 2008 for coaches to really figure out how to take best advantage.

    That's when the big-time gunners started to disappear.

    Flooding the side of the court with the ball makes everything tougher for that star scorer, starting when he makes the catch and assesses options. Driving lanes are tighter or closed off entirely. More defenders have more ability to get hands in faces. It's difficult to reach favored spots on the court, and to operate once there. These are the times that try virtuoso's souls.

    And when there's an extra defender on one side of the court, the good play is pretty obvious: pass to the other side, where your team has the numbers advantage.

    If Thorpe is right, that this team defensive technique is to blame for our new shortage of big scorers, there are various ways you might expect the data to have his back. For instance, secondary scorers -- those guys catching the ball on the sparsely defended weak side -- ought to be scoring more, while top players could expect to see an uptick in assists.

    That's all happening. Stars putting up big numbers are incredibly hard to find this season compared to five years ago, but overall team scoring is down only about two points per game -- the non-star scorers must be picking up a little slack.

    And as for assists, in 1985-86, the 10 players who played the longest minutes in the season's first 36 games combined for 1,308 assists. Five years ago, that number was 1,482. This year it's all the way up to 1,768.

    Not getting to the line

    There's one other part of this story. A big part. And it's this: Free throws are more rare than ever. There are 22.3 per game on average this season, which is the lowest level in NBA history. And it's not a one-year aberration. The second lowest year ever was last year. Every season since 2008-09 is in the top 10 all-time for fewest free throws.

    Now we're getting somewhere.

    Top players are simply not getting to the line.

    Those high-minute players combined to shoot more than 2,400 free throws in the first 36 games of both 1985-86 and 2007-08. This season, they stepped to the line just 1,757 times.

    In a way, this is one mystery solved. Pace mildly slower. Minutes slightly lower. Scoring generally down a bit. Free throws are down hugely compared to all of history and 10 percent over the last five years. New defenses can explain some or all of that, and it's more clear than ever why so few players are averaging 20 points per game.

    But this mystery comes with a sequel: Why so few free throws?

    One theory is that the NBA has reduced some of the referee trickery available to big scorers, for instance, by discouraging the "rip-through" move which led to cheap free throws for top scorers. Refereeing oversight has evolved, too, with the league looking over referees' shoulders more than ever in the name of a consistently called game. Perhaps "star calls" are on the wane generally.

    Another possible explanation, however, is that Thorpe's defensive theory explains this too: with extra defenders around, perhaps players simply aren't attacking the rim, where big numbers of fouls are drawn, as often as they used to.

    If so, that could be a major factor -- the major factor, even -- in explaining why top players aren't scoring like they used to.
  • thagamethagame Posts: 368 ✭✭✭
    1. Part of it is players are just not as good as players were in 2007-8. The SG-SF has not produced elite talent capable of scoring since this season and the center position is almost extinct lol.
    2. The second part is "bad" teams used to have a go to 20PPG scorer that isn't even the case anymore.
    3. The other part is teams are spreading the ball around more for most teams and they don't need a 20PPG scorer to win. Equal opportunity scoring instead of star driven 1-2 player getting most of the shots. Indy, Chicago, Denver, Clippers
    4. "Teaming" up is has lead to certain players reduction in shots therefore scoring down. There are plenty of players that would average more if they didn't have another dominant scorer on their team.
    5. Last there are some injuries accounting for a few 20PPG scorers (Rose, Bynum, Love)

    2007-8 PPG
    1 LeBron James CLE 30
    2 Kobe Bryant LAL 28.3
    3 Allen Iverson DEN 26.4
    4 Carmelo Anthony DEN 25.7
    5 Amare Stoudemire PHO 25.2
    6 Dwyane Wade MIA 24.6
    7 Kevin Martin SAC 23.7
    8 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 23.6
    9 Michael Redd MIL 22.7
    10 Richard Jefferson NJN 22.6
    11 Chris Bosh TOR 22.3
    12 Corey Maggette LAC 22.1
    13 Yao Ming HOU 22
    14 Baron Davis GSW 21.8
    15 Jason Richardson CHA 21.8
    16 Joe Johnson ATL 21.7
    17 Tracy McGrady HOU 21.6
    18 Antawn Jamison WAS 21.4
    19 Vince Carter NJN 21.3
    20 Carlos Boozer UTA 21.1
    21 Chris Paul NOH 21.1
    22 Al Jefferson MIN 21
    23 Dwight Howard ORL 20.7
    24 Jamal Crawford NYK 20.6
    25 David West NOH 20.6
    26 Metta World Peace SAC 20.5
    27 Caron Butler WAS 20.3
    28 Kevin Durant SEA 20.3
    29 Monta Ellis GSW 20.2
    30 Rudy Gay MEM 20.1
    31 Stephen Jackson GSW 20.1



    2012-13
    PPG
    1 Kobe Bryant LAL 29.7
    2 Kevin Durant OKC 29.3
    3 Carmelo Anthony NYK 29.2
    4 LeBron James MIA 26.3
    5 James Harden HOU 26
    6 Kyrie Irving CLE 23.3
    7 Russell Westbrook OKC 22.7
    8 LaMarcus Aldridge POR 20.6
    9 Stephen Curry GSW 20.5
    10 Dwyane Wade MIA 20.1




    almighty breezepurpngold
  • MC The RapperMC The Rapper Posts: 8,143 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2013
    Hero ball is dying its not that people aren't as good as they used to be or any like that its that the talent level of the teams overall has went up and the philosophy of moving the ball and sharing the scoring load has changed the game. Also the anti flopping rule and reggie miller rule have also effected the scoring output .
  • Nah SonNah Son Habitual Line Stepper Posts: 6,417 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2013
  • ShizlanskyShizlansky Nothing better then being a father. Posts: 17,681 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Overall Better basketball is being played imo.

    Basketball IQ for the elite players is up and their making the right choices on the court.
  • AllergensAllergens Ladies Love Cool Ace Posts: 14,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Last time a check A.I and Nique retired without rings, Nate Robinson a gunner ,Jr smith a gunner...and i guaran-fuckin-tee Jr Smith gonna end the knicks playoff run this year
    TheBoyRo
  • playmaker88playmaker88 You over did it holmes, you in the danger zone, you shouldn't be alone Posts: 48,388 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Shizlansky wrote: »
    Overall Better basketball is being played imo.

    Basketball IQ for the elite players is up and their making the right choices on the court.

    Nosign stop eating up that media BS
    WhoisDonG???
  • VulcanRavenVulcanRaven Rise from the ashes MarylandPosts: 13,670 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • ShizlanskyShizlansky Nothing better then being a father. Posts: 17,681 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Shizlansky wrote: »
    Overall Better basketball is being played imo.

    Basketball IQ for the elite players is up and their making the right choices on the court.

    Nosign stop eating up that media BS

    no nigga, you stop eating up media BS.

    I know what I'm seeing.

    More players are taking more high percentage shots.
  • smittysmithsmittysmith Posts: 7,362 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Its due to the fact that its a ISO/pick and roll game that relies on a lot of low percentage shots and less teamwork. The reason guys and teams could score more is because they worked as a team and worked to find the high percentage shots. Sets were run going towards the basket with pin downs and screens inside of 18 feet and if their was an isolation it would be in the post not outside of the 3 pt line like today.
  • ragerage Posts: 5,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Shizlansky wrote: »
    Overall Better basketball is being played imo.

    Basketball IQ for the elite players is up and their making the right choices on the court.

    Absolutely if you look at that list from 2007-08 of the top 5 only Amare (centre) is above .500% FG. You can't simply be a pure scorer anymore, you have to be efficient and be far more concerned with assists and rebounding if you want to win. Being a "gunner" will leave you 17-22 and struggling for the 8th playoff spot.
    MC The RapperShizlansky
  • BlackxChildBlackxChild Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • BlackAX410BlackAX410 JEFF AXEL DA GREAT Posts: 26,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    made a thread bout dis last year, super teams nd efficiency are da difference from now nd back in da day. Personally i miss those 40 nd 50 point games guys used to have despite havin inefficient shootin numbers shit was fun to watch da mid 2000's had some video game type performances
    iron man1
  • BlackAX410BlackAX410 JEFF AXEL DA GREAT Posts: 26,888 ✭✭✭✭✭
    nd i hate these non aggressive wing iont wanna be great players wit star talent. Rudy Gay, Iggy, Granger, Joe Johnson etc. Dudes who have da athleticism nd can score from anywhere on da court but dont utilize it, dont shoot enough shots, take too many 3's, but can average around 25ppg nd just overall passive. just seeing dat list @thagame put up da fuck happened wit players who were aggressive wit their shots?
    thagameWhoisDonG???
  • thagamethagame Posts: 368 ✭✭✭
    Yeah there are a bunch of should be elite wings but none of them can put it all together. Iggy doesn't want to be a go to scorer. Rudy can score from almost anywhere, I think his team really doesn't need him to score though. I tried to put a list of the top SG's and I see why Harden will get his money because the SG position aint where it should be. There is also a new trend where the SG is now starting to be the go to scorer and coming off the bench not even starting. Teams are going with a defensive starting SG like Thabo, Allen, Bradley then let the shooting SG come of the bench and anchor the bench.

    1. Kobe
    2. Wade
    3. Harden
    4. Joe Johnson SG/SF
    5. Eric Gordon
    6. Ellis
    7. Martin
    8. Iggy SG/SF
    9. Mayo
    10. Manu
  • ShizlanskyShizlansky Nothing better then being a father. Posts: 17,681 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • WhoisDonG???WhoisDonG??? Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I say fundamentally players are lacking the midrange game they either score by driving or 3 pointers. The inbetween game is almost dead. If you watch basketball real great scorers in history have had that inbetween game. Melo and Durant are the only great scorers with that skill and it's hard to guard. Kobe has it too.
    BlackAX410detcatinvaNothingButTheTruth
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