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Statistically, launch is the worst time to buy a console

1CK1S
1CK1S Members Posts: 27,472 ✭✭✭✭✭
statistically-launch-is-the-worst-time-to-buy-a-console-1103017.jpg

The excitement of new gaming hardware is all too hard to contain, especially for someone that’s owned one of the Xbox 360 or PS3 since they launched in late 2005 and late 2006, respectively. So all is forgiven if you fork out a few hundred dollars for either the Xbox One or PS4 (just like this author is).
But the reality is that when we buy a new console at launch, we’re really falling for the excitement of it all, making an irrational purpose based purely on the expectation of years worth of enjoyment.

That’s okay: we all need a little fun in our lives, and it’s okay to give in to the excitement every now and then. It’s what makes us imperfect: that nature of our vulnerability is actually quite beautiful when you think about it.
Beautiful like my black heart, frozen from years worth of neglect and malnutrition …

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Anyway, there’s a consistent theme in the slow progression of game quality over a console’s life cycle, which suggests that the launch of a console is statistically the worst time to actually buy one. Obviously the initial launch price is a big deal, with price cuts inevitable down the track, but from a software perspective, feeding your launch day cravings is probably the most irrational thing a consumer could do.
Here’s why......

The launch games always tend to … well … suck

The initial launch month for both the Xbox 360 and PS3 weren’t all that flash. Sure, both had a stack of decent games on offer, and their best of the best -- Call of Duty 2 (89% on Metacritic) and Resistance: Fall of Man (86% on Metacritic) -- were fun games to test on your new piece of hardware. But the rest made hardly any noise.
Of the PS3’s 14 launch games, 50% were PS2 ports with a coat of paint. The 360? 70% of its launch lineup was made up of Xbox ports like Need for Speed Most Wanted and Gun.

The first two years are a mixed bag

The Xbox 360’s first two years were great: games like Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock, Mass Effect and The Orange Box, among others, came out to grace 360 gamers with their awesomeness.
But they’re a few of only 10 of the top 50 ranked Xbox 360 games on Metacritic that were released prior to November 2007. That means that of the Xbox 360’s top 50 games, 40 of them came into and beyond the console’s third year on sale. We had to wait three years for a consistent stream of great games.

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For the PS3, only 8 of its top 50 ranked games came prior to late 2008, meaning 42 of its best games came into and beyond the console’s third year on sale.

Then why are we rushing to buy Xbox One and PS4 now?

Because we’re suckers, that’s why!
No, I’m kidding (actually I’m not really), but after eight years of waiting I think we deserve something new and fresh. It’s no secret that launch games are never the best way to gauge the worth of a console, and these days we need to look beyond what a console offers to determine whether or not the launch is actually worth it, because the games sure as hell don’t dictate forking over $500+ on new hardware.
But does that matter? Do we even need the games to determine whether or not we buy a console?
We shouldn't.

Why shouldn’t we care about the games?

Well … you should care about the games, but what’s important is the context of your purchase: you’re contributing to a collective, a growing market that will, in turn, dictate the games.
Rockstar hinted that the reason next-gen consoles weren’t a viable option for GTA V was because the install base didn’t exist yet. That’s a totally acceptable response for a game that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to make.

So I should buy a console then? I’m confused ...

I’m not trying to tell you what to do. I just want you to know that a console never really “takes off” until a few years into its life cycle. Well, that’s at least what Nintendo fanboys say about Wii U …

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Basically, it’s a combination of developers getting to understand the hardware, and publishers having confidence that their investment is worthwhile.
Yesterday I wrote an article talking about what I’d consider a “pass” mark for the Xbox One’s first 12 months. At the very least, I want something new and fresh, something that breaks away from the “launch game” feel we all know Ryse and Killzone: Shadow Fall (and *ahem* Knack) are going to have. I want a BioShock, or a Gears of War. Titanfall should do that, but I’m hopeful something as fresh and exciting can hit the PS4 in its first 12 months.
When it’s all said and done, numbers do tell a story, but they can never bury the excitement that takes over with the release of a new console. Xbox One and PS4 might lack the gaming pizzaz from the get-go, but we all know why we buy these consoles at launch.
Or do we?

http://mmgn.com/xboxone/articles--statistically-launch-is-the-worst-time-to-buy
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Comments

  • focus
    focus The #1 Nigga, I Don't Need No Hype. Members Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2013
    I swear some of you 🤬 act like you never goin see $400 or $500 again lol
  • genocidecutter
    genocidecutter Members Posts: 17,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thats why Im buying my PS4 next year
  • grumpy_new_yorker
    grumpy_new_yorker Use your head for more than a hat rack Members Posts: 5,962 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No point in buying a system when there are no games I'm interested in.

    Besides PS3 still has lots of life in it with some great games coming out in 2014. Same way PS2 had some of it's best titles released long after PS3 came out. (🤬 of War 2, Persona 3+4, KOF XI, Many of the SNK compilations, etc)
  • kanggoodie
    kanggoodie Members Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭✭✭
    i get what they are saying, but look at how many great titles came out for the 360 early.. you cant just dismiss 10 GOAT games like that... hell, titanfall and watchdogs will be in the streets before you know it. i gotsta play that 2k14 tho.. 🤬 what they talkin bout
  • gh0st
    gh0st Members Posts: 1,956 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No point in buying a system when there are no games I'm interested in.

    Besides PS3 still has lots of life in it with some great games coming out in 2014. Same way PS2 had some of it's best titles released long after PS3 came out. (🤬 of War 2, Persona 3+4, KOF XI, Many of the SNK compilations, etc)

    this answer is correct.
  • KillaCham
    KillaCham M0D SQUAD™ Members, Moderators Posts: 11,417 Regulator
    edited November 2013
    I got my PS4 just because I wanted it to mess with the features, I could do a lot with it through my phone, and I already have a Vita that works great with it in many ways. If you're looking to cop these systems strictly to play the games they have to offer, waiting 6 months obviously isn't too bad of an idea.
  • Broddie
    Broddie just me and my bitch NYCMembers Posts: 11,750 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2013
    Whoever wrote that article is a regular Sherlock Holmes. Bottom line is unless you're into being hardware beta testers there is no reason to be so damn thirsty that you NEED the latest console at launch.
    kanggoodie wrote: »
    i get what they are saying, but look at how many great titles came out for the 360 early.. you cant just dismiss 10 GOAT games like that... hell, titanfall and watchdogs will be in the streets before you know it. i gotsta play that 2k14 tho.. 🤬 what they talkin bout

    You can't assume that there will be all this greatness available early on. There have been more than enough consoles that have shown that that is not the norm (PSX, N64, Xbox, Gamecube, Saturn, PS2, PS3, 3DS, Wii U etc.)

    I rather wait till PS4 and Xbox One have a much deeper game library which is the same reason I also held out on Wii U than spend the money on what would be glorified paper weights. There are better things to do with 1000 plus dollars at the moment than waste it on electronics I don't even see myself regularly using until next year at the earliest.
  • joshuaboy
    joshuaboy Members Posts: 10,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kanggoodie wrote: »
    i get what they are saying, but look at how many great titles came out for the 360 early.. you cant just dismiss 10 GOAT games like that... hell, titanfall and watchdogs will be in the streets before you know it. i gotsta play that 2k14 tho.. 🤬 what they talkin bout



    Well, I'm not gonna buy the console and WAIT for these games to drop. Who knows what can happen between now and then? Defects could be discovered by you beta testers and a better model might be available by then as well as better bundles/deals.
  • kanggoodie
    kanggoodie Members Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭✭✭
    U kno what.. yall do you Imma do me.. I bought the 🤬 cause I wanted it. Lol. If it breaks within a year I have warranty Anyways
  • StoneColdMikey
    StoneColdMikey mikeyismod CHITOWN THE BEST TOWNMembers, Moderators Posts: 33,543 Regulator
    What's the deal of not buying it now don't most game systems have warranty anyway
  • Broddie
    Broddie just me and my bitch NYCMembers Posts: 11,750 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2013
    What's the deal of not buying it now don't most game systems have warranty anyway

    I have other priorities in my life that trump gaming with ease. My 3DS is good enough for me right now. I could spend $500 plus dollars on detailing my car or furnishing my new apartment or getting some much needed R&R by going on vacation for a couple of weeks. There are only 2 games across both consoles that I even want at this point so there's no real value there. By the time I buy these consoles there will be better hardware out the box with the kinks worked out, a price drop and a lot more than just 2 video games to grab my attention.

    Right now the only home console on the market I see any value in is Wii U because there are about 8 games I want to play on it already available right now. With some of those games being available at reduced prices and more games I want coming out within the next 5 months. The only reason I won't buy that either this holiday season is purely psychological. I don't feel it's worth $300 so I refuse to pay that for the hardware despite it having more than a handful of software I'd like to 🤬 with. As soon as there's a price drop (maybe by spring time depending on how the holiday goes for Nintendo) though I'm copping that before any of the other 2.

  • kanggoodie
    kanggoodie Members Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ^^^ titangraoh was not needed .. you Coulda stopped at priorities.. sheesh


    And 🤬 need to 🤬 this price drops talk.. if you waiting on a price drop u ain't coppin next gen till like 2015/16
  • Broddie
    Broddie just me and my bitch NYCMembers Posts: 11,750 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kanggoodie wrote: »
    ^^^ titangraoh was not needed .. you Coulda stopped at priorities.. sheesh


    And 🤬 need to 🤬 this price drops talk.. if you waiting on a price drop u ain't coppin next gen till like 2015/16

    Or you could just simply avoid reading posts that weren't responding to you in the first place.
  • The Lonious Monk
    The Lonious Monk Man with No Fucks Given Members Posts: 26,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No point in buying a system when there are no games I'm interested in.

    Besides PS3 still has lots of life in it with some great games coming out in 2014. Same way PS2 had some of it's best titles released long after PS3 came out. (🤬 of War 2, Persona 3+4, KOF XI, Many of the SNK compilations, etc)

    This is what I'm saying. The PS3 still has a number of good games either out now or on the horizon, and the next gen systems aren't really even doing anything significant to separate themselves from the previous generation at this point. I'm not saying people are stupid for getting a system at launch, but I don't really understand why people get so amped up over something that probably won't really take off for at least another year or so.
  • kanggoodie
    kanggoodie Members Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭✭✭
    But monk.. that 2k tho... it'll change yo life lol
  • The Lonious Monk
    The Lonious Monk Man with No Fucks Given Members Posts: 26,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kanggoodie wrote: »
    But monk.. that 2k tho... it'll change yo life lol

    lol Talk about incremental updates. Sports games are the definition of that.
  • Neophyte Wolfgang
    Neophyte Wolfgang Members Posts: 4,169 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Only cornballs by systems at launch. I am going to wait till this summer and fall
  • Shizlansky
    Shizlansky Members Posts: 35,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    buying after xmas
  • joshuaboy
    joshuaboy Members Posts: 10,858 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What's the deal of not buying it now don't most game systems have warranty anyway



    Black Friday coming up ...... bunch of other stuff I'm buying. Gotta get a new suit plus buy 3 VIP tickets for Old Years party. Trip to Trinidad in February for Carnival plus fetes and hotel. Trip to either St Kitts or Puerto Rico in March/April.

    Much more entertaining stuff to drop money on until its worth getting the new consoles.
  • Bcotton5
    Bcotton5 Members Posts: 51,851 ✭✭✭✭✭
    buying in Feb when Infoamoui2 do derope
  • earth two superman
    earth two superman ladies please dont fight. E2S is here all night! Members Posts: 17,149 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bcotton5 wrote: »
    buying in Feb when Infoamoui2 do derope

    lol you 🤬 ass 🤬 lay off the wine coolers
  • CJ
    CJ Members Posts: 15,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bcotton5 wrote: »
    buying in Feb when Infoamoui2 do derope

    Wtf
  • PILL_COSBY
    PILL_COSBY GRAB HER BY THE PUDDING! ZIP ZOP ZOOBITY BOP DAAAAW!!!Members Posts: 6,374 ✭✭✭✭✭
    LOL at the youngstas not understanding the original post, but I understand why they think the way they do. They just bought their 1st systems with their own money last generation. They also don't really have a reference point to see the fake outs. Meanwhile us vets been through several systems and made a lot of mistakes with them in the past. These youngstas just don't want to take advice from those who came before. The 🤬 is getting even worst now. The more advanced 🤬 gets it seems the more problems pop up. Last but not least, this is the worst launch lineup in history for all 3 systems. You gullible youngsts aint even half the problem. A lot of fake ass casual gamers are the ones that's really 🤬 🤬 up though. They're the ones who fork out all this cash because of one game or a single feature lol. They are just like fake and casual hip hop fans who hype up people like macklamore, lil wayne, and all of eminem's new 🤬 .

    At least with the older systems they gave you a demo disc to get you hyped for what was about to drop. Now all you get is C.G.I previews, multiple push backs, and shaky release dates.

    Long story short:

    US vets did that so you youngstas wont have to.
  • kanggoodie
    kanggoodie Members Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kanggoodie wrote: »
    But monk.. that 2k tho... it'll change yo life lol

    lol Talk about incremental updates. Sports games are the definition of that.

    This is the exception tho
  • nex gin
    nex gin Keep It Simple Stupid Members Posts: 10,698 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My PS3 just recently died after many great years of service....(rip).....so I've been jonesing for a PS4. *crosses fingers my xbox holds out a little bit longer*