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Trump can't win

A Talented OneA Talented One stewMembers Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭
Donald J. Trump’s presidential candidacy has stunned the Republican Party. But if he survives a late revolt by his rivals and other leaders to become the party’s standard-bearer in the general election, the electoral map now coming into view is positively forbidding.

In recent head-to-head polls with one Democrat whom Mr. Trump may face in the fall, Hillary Clinton, he trails in every key state, including Florida and Ohio, despite her soaring unpopularity ratings with swing voters.

In Democratic-leaning states across the Rust Belt, which Mr. Trump has vowed to return to the Republican column for the first time in nearly 30 years, his deficit is even worse: Mrs. Clinton leads him by double digits in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Mr. Trump is so negatively viewed, polls suggest, that he could turn otherwise safe Republican states, usually political afterthoughts because of their strong conservative tilt, into tight contests. In Utah, his deep unpopularity with Mormon voters suggests that a state that has gone Republican every election for a half-century could wind up in play. Republicans there pointed to a much-discussed Deseret News poll last month, showing Mrs. Clinton with a narrow lead over Mr. Trump, to argue that the state would be difficult for him...

Mr. Trump has become unacceptable, perhaps irreversibly so, to broad swaths of Americans, including large majorities of women, nonwhites, Hispanics, voters under 30 and those with college degrees — the voters who powered President Obama’s two victories and represent the country’s demographic future. All view him unfavorably by a 2-to-1 margin, according to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll.

In some states, Mr. Trump has surprised establishment-aligned Republicans with his breadth of support beyond the less-educated men who form his base. Even so, his support in the nominating process, in which some 30 million people may ultimately vote, would be swamped in a general election, when turnout is likely to be four times that.

“We’re talking about somebody who has the passionate devotion of a minority and alternately scares, appalls, angers — or all of the above — a majority of the country,” said Henry Olsen, a conservative analyst. “This isn’t anything but a historic election defeat just waiting to happen.”

What could ensure a humiliating loss for Mr. Trump in November are his troubles with constituencies that have favored Republicans in recent elections. Among independents, a group that Mitt Romney carried even as he lost to President Obama in 2012, Mr. Trump would begin the fall campaign at a considerable disadvantage: 19 percent have a favorable opinion of him, but 57 percent view him unfavorably, the Times/CBS survey found. Given his loathed standing among Democrats and the possibility that many in his own party would spurn him, Mr. Trump would need to invert his numbers among independents to even be competitive in November.

With white women, a bloc Mr. Romney easily won even in defeat, Mr. Trump is nearly as unpopular: 23 percent view him favorably, while 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. And that was before Mr. Trump attacked Senator Ted Cruz’s wife, ridiculed a female reporter against whom Mr. Trump’s campaign manager was charged with committing battery, and suggested that women who have abortions should face criminal punishment before reversing himself.

Mr. Trump’s penchant to offend and his household-name celebrity are a potentially lethal combination, as most voters have both firm and deeply negative opinions of him. His incendiary comments about minorities and the disabled, and proposals to bar Muslims from entering the United States or to force Mexico to pay for a wall on the southern border, have resounded so widely that half of all voters said they would be scared if he were elected president, according to the Times/CBS poll.

“There is no precedent for this,” said Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican pollster. “In the modern polling era, since around World War II, there hasn’t been a more unpopular potential presidential nominee than Donald Trump.”

More at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/03/us/politics/donald-trump-general-election.html?_r=0
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Comments

  • damobb2deepdamobb2deep Members Posts: 19,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mr.LV wrote: »
    He is about to get his ass handed to him come November.

    if he gets the nomination he will be the fall of the republican party...
  • Mr.LVMr.LV Members Posts: 14,089 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mr.LV wrote: »
    He is about to get his ass handed to him come November.

    if he gets the nomination he will be the fall of the republican party...

    Nah the Republican party would be alright the majority of the governors in America are Republican so is the Senate and the house of Representatives. It's just they as a party, they have to figure how to win the presidency with a less white and more diverse population .
  • TheGOATTheGOAT El Coyote unknownGuests, Members, Writer, Content Producer Posts: 15,916 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ...and hilarity will ensue
  • damobb2deepdamobb2deep Members Posts: 19,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGOAT wrote: »
    Mr.LV wrote: »
    He is about to get his ass handed to him come November.

    if he gets the nomination he will be the fall of the republican party...

    If he wins the election it will be the fall of American politics

    People are voting for him because they are sick of robot politicians quoting stock party lines.

    If he wins i can see the presidency taking a turn to more of a popularity contest than ever. And if the Trumps get in the White House Kanye & the Kardashians aren't that much of a stretch to rival him in 2020
    im being real as 🤬 when i say this but if kanye and kim Kardashian EVER move in the white house im moving to Canada.. idgaf... i honestly dont think kanye can handle that pressure..
  • zzombiezzombie Members Posts: 11,280 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ted Cruz for president
  • damobb2deepdamobb2deep Members Posts: 19,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
    zzombie wrote: »
    Ted Cruz for president

    i could see this because im sure lots of Hispanics would want to see a man of latin decent as our president.. which could help rejuvenate the Republican party...
  • blackgod813blackgod813 Members Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just want the wall...
  • dalyricalbanditdalyricalbandit Co-Owner Of AllhipHop.com, Super Moderator, Administrator, Moderator Members, Moderators Posts: 67,918 Regulator
    What if trump makes America great aga... neveremind
  • gnsgns Bleeding 24/7 Members Posts: 21,285 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGOAT wrote: »
    zzombie wrote: »
    Ted Cruz for president

    i could see this because im sure lots of Hispanics would want to see a man of latin decent as our president.. which could help rejuvenate the Republican party...

    Ted Cruz is as white as they come. He said he would deport illegals too.

    Wait a minute....this guy doesnt sound half bad
  •   Colin$mackabi$h Colin$mackabi$h Smartass Snatch Money ave.Members Posts: 16,586 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Same game, different players...
  • Mister B.Mister B. Still the Devil's #1 Advocate. Come on out that box! Members, Writer Posts: 16,171 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Had a spark when you started...."

    Cmon. It only so long fake ones can pretend, and I'm sure we all saw this coming.
  • zzombiezzombie Members Posts: 11,280 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2016
    Copper wrote: »
    zzombie wrote: »
    Ted Cruz for president

    This 🤬 is an embarrassment

    I was joking all the people I would prefer to vote for already dropped out ..... But if trump does not win the nomination I will be voting republican
  • zzombiezzombie Members Posts: 11,280 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Who the 🤬 else can I vote for???? I mean realistically
  • CopperCopper The WickMembers Posts: 49,531 ✭✭✭✭✭
    zzombie wrote: »
    Copper wrote: »
    zzombie wrote: »
    Ted Cruz for president

    This 🤬 is an embarrassment

    I was joking all the people I would prefer to vote for already dropped out ..... But if trump does not win the nomination I will be voting republican

    Rubio?
  • TheGOATTheGOAT El Coyote unknownGuests, Members, Writer, Content Producer Posts: 15,916 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Copper wrote: »
    zzombie wrote: »
    Copper wrote: »
    zzombie wrote: »
    Ted Cruz for president

    This 🤬 is an embarrassment

    I was joking all the people I would prefer to vote for already dropped out ..... But if trump does not win the nomination I will be voting republican

    Rubio?

    Rubio been out the race
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